The collective "shock" of agricultural product prices is inhibited by excessive speculation

"Country 16" landed for a week, and the miraculous effect was obvious - after the climax of the national major agricultural product prices, the collective "shocked."

In an interview with reporters, industry sources said that the violent reaction in the futures market has been fully transmitted to the spot market and government measures have been effective. However, in the long run, the price of agricultural products has entered a trend of rising prices.

Soaring, stumbling and pulling down expectations On the 29th, the reporter found a supermarket in Chaoyang District, Beijing, that the retail prices of agricultural products had shown signs of loosening. The organic purple cabbage originally sold at RMB 14/kg has already fallen to RMB 11/kg; the egg price has also dropped from the previous 9.6/kg to the current RMB 8.8/kg.

According to industry sources, the loosening of supermarket prices is directly related to the reduction of entry barriers for agricultural products. Not long ago, Beijing organized agricultural enterprises and specialized farmer cooperatives to cooperate with major supermarkets. Supermarkets have reduced the purchase fees and bar code fees for agricultural products. At the same time, the intermediate links for the circulation of vegetables and fruits have also been saved. The price of vegetables can be reduced by at least 10%.

According to the spirit of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission had explicitly stated on the 23rd that it was required to reduce related expenses such as supermarket entry fees, and to improve and implement green transportation policies for fresh agricultural products.

In the comprehensive market of the Dayang Road in Chaoyang District, the wholesale price of most agricultural products fell significantly from the previous high. Among them, the edible oil price cuts the most "to force": Jinlongyu 5 liters of soybean oil has been reduced from the previous 54.5 yuan / barrel to 52 yuan; Red Fuji Apple from the previous 5.5 yuan / kg, down to the current 4.9 yuan / kg The decline was as high as 16.4%, and it has stabilized at this level for several days.

The reaction of the spot market is only a replay of the early futures market.

Since November 12, domestic commodity futures prices have fallen sharply, wheat, corn, and japonica prices have fallen by an average of about 6%, soybean oil and sugar prices have fallen by more than 10%, and cotton prices have fallen by more than 20%.

According to industry insiders, “the agricultural product market was once the most favored place for new funds, and it has now become the most turbulent place for fund withdrawal.” The decline in commodity prices in the futures market indicates that China’s measures to curb over-speculation in agricultural products have become effective.

Oriental Iger senior analyst Chen Shuwei believes that under the government's control, the expectation that the price of agricultural products will rise too quickly will begin to weaken, and this trend will probably continue until March next year.

The trend-increasing channel has been opened However, reporters also found that in the comprehensive market of the Great Ocean Road, while the prices of some agricultural products are loosening, there are still many agricultural products that are closely related to the residents’ lives and prices remain strong. On the 29th, the wholesale price of Hangjia rose from 6 yuan/kg on the 18th to 8 yuan; the price of Onion rose from the previous 1.6/kg to 2.0 yuan, and the price of Chinese cabbage rose from 1.04 yuan/kg to 1.3 yuan.

In response, Zheng Fengtian, deputy dean of the School of Agriculture and Rural Development at Renmin University of China, believes that “the increase in agricultural products reflects the potential value of agricultural land is increasingly prominent.” In the same unit of land area, the income gap between agriculture and other industries has reached Amazingly.

The person in charge of a wholesale market believes that as the economy accelerates and the living standard of the people improves, the prices of various household items will rise accordingly, including vegetable prices, of course. This is an inevitable manifestation of economic development to a certain extent.

Even from the data of 2007, the prices of rice in Japan and South Korea are 5.9 times and 7.2 times that of China respectively; the soybeans are 3.5 times and 6.0 times respectively; the pork is 1.5 times and 1.6 times respectively; the eggs are 1.6 times and 2.0 respectively. Times; milk is 2.0 times, 2.4 times.

According to this person, with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the three “basic costs” of agricultural product production – the rigid rise in production data, labor, and land prices are unavoidable. Long-term undervalued agricultural products are returning to value through price increases and entering into trends. The rising channel.

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